When Is This Is Us on Again and What Channel
How Does It End? A Fashion Out of the Ukraine War Proves Elusive.
March 13, 2022, 6:09 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON — The United States accurately predicted the beginning of the state of war in Ukraine, sounding the alarm that an invasion was imminent despite Moscow's denials and Europe'south skepticism. Predicting how information technology might end is proving far more difficult.
There are three split back-channel efforts underway to start negotiations — by the leaders of France; Israel and Turkey; and, in a recent entree, the new chancellor of Federal republic of germany. But so far, all have hit the stone wall of President Vladimir 5. Putin'due south refusal to engage in whatsoever serious negotiation. At the Pentagon, there are models of a slogging conflict that brings more than needless expiry and destruction to a nascent European democracy, and others in which Mr. Putin settles for what some believe was his original objective: seizing a wide swath of the south and east, connecting Russia by land to Crimea, which he annexed in 2014.
And there is a more terrifying endgame, in which NATO nations get sucked more than directly into the conflict, by accident or design. That possibility became more brilliant on Dominicus, when Russian missiles landed in Ukraine's western reaches, an area unscathed until at present by the eighteen-day-old conflict, about a dozen miles from the Smoothen border. Russia declared over the weekend that continued efforts to funnel weapons through that region to the Ukrainian forces would make the convoys "legitimate targets," a warning that just because the weapons are being massed on NATO territory does not mean they are immune from attack.
In interviews with senior American and European officials in recent days, there is a consensus on i point: Just as the last two weeks revealed that Russia'due south vaunted military faltered in its invasion plan, the next two or three may reveal whether Ukraine can survive as a country, and negotiate an end to the war. So far even the about basic progress, such as establishing safe humanitarian corridors, has proved elusive.
And now, what troubles officials is that Mr. Putin may double downwardly and expand the fight beyond Ukraine.
In private, officials express concern that Mr. Putin might seek to accept Moldova, another quondam Soviet republic that has never joined NATO and is considered especially vulnerable. There is renewed apprehension most Georgia, which fought a war with Russia in 2008 that today seems like a test run for the far larger conflict playing out.
And in that location is the possibility that Mr. Putin, angered by the slowness of his offensive in Ukraine, may attain for other weapons: chemical, biological, nuclear and cyber.
Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden'south national security adviser, mentioned that scenario on Sunday, appearing on CBS's "Face the Nation." "Part of the reason why Putin is resorting to the possibility of extreme tactics similar the use of chemical weapons is because he's frustrated because his forces aren't advancing," he said.
Mr. Sullivan said that Russia would suffer "severe consequences" if it used chemical weapons, without specifying what those would be. He sidestepped the question of how Mr. Biden would react. And so far he has said the simply thing that would bring the United States and its allies direct into the war would be an attack on NATO nations. Quietly, the White Firm and the senior American military leadership have been modeling how they would respond to a series of escalations, including major cyberattacks on American financial institutions and the utilize of a tactical or "battlefield" nuclear weapon past Mr. Putin to signal to the rest of the world that he would brook no interference as he moves to trounce Ukraine.
Fifty-fifty with Ukrainians begging for more offensive weapons and American intervention, Mr. Biden has stuck to his determination that he will not directly engage the forces of a nuclear-armed superpower.
Epitome
"The idea that nosotros're going to send in offensive equipment," Mr. Biden said in Philadelphia to the House Democratic Conclave on Friday, "and have planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews, just understand — and don't kid yourself, no thing what you all say — that'south called 'Globe State of war Iii.' OK? Permit'southward get information technology directly here."
Diplomacy: Deciphering Putin'due south Lesser Line
Early last week there was a glimmer of hope that a real negotiation would brainstorm that could establish humanitarian corridors for Ukrainians to escape the horror of intense shelling and missile attacks, and perhaps lead to peace talks. Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman and a confidant of Mr. Putin, said that if Ukraine changed its constitution to accept some form of "neutrality" rather than an aspiration to join NATO; recognized that the separatist areas of Donetsk and Lugansk were contained states, and that Crimea was function of Russia; the armed forces strikes would stop "in a moment."
In an interview with ABC News the next 24-hour interval, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine seemed surprisingly open to the thought. He said he had "cooled down" on joining NATO, saying it was clear the Western brotherhood "is not prepared to accept Ukraine." And while he did not say he could take a cleave-out of part of the state, he said that "we tin can discuss and find a compromise on how these territories volition alive on."
Merely it is unclear whether Mr. Putin himself would take that deal. Separate conversations between the Russian leader and President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Federal republic of germany, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett of Israel and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey all circled the aforementioned bug, but left his interlocutors wondering if they were beingness played for time as the war ground on.
A French regime account of a call to Mr. Putin on Saturday by Mr. Macron and Mr. Scholz termed it "disappointing with Putin's insincerity: He is determined to continue the war." Wendy Sherman, the deputy secretary of state, said at that place was no testify from the conversations so far that Mr. Putin has inverse course; he remains "intent on destroying Ukraine."
Each of those leaders checked in with senior U.Southward. administration officials before and after their talks with Mr. Putin, and they accept been speaking with Mr. Zelensky as well. The United States has kept some distance — in part because no senior Russian officials will communicate with their American counterparts, including with the kind of talks that were routine in the run-upwardly to the war.
The best promise, American and European officials say, is that Mr. Putin concludes that he must scale dorsum his goals in the confront of the economic sanctions — especially the crippling of Russia's central banking company and the prospect that the country will default chop-chop on its obligations. However should Mr. Zelensky actually strike a deal with Mr. Putin, that could lead to a hard decision for the U.s.a.: whether to lift whatever of the sanctions that it has coordinated with nations effectually the earth.
A Worse Alternative: Long, Slow Slog
Despite his military'southward logistical issues, Mr. Putin appears intent on intensifying his campaign and laying siege to Kyiv, the capital; Kharkiv, the land's second-largest metropolis; and other Ukrainian urban centers.
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But even as Mr. Putin presses on with his strategy to pound Kyiv into submission, Russian air and ground forces are against Ukrainians motivated to fight, senior Pentagon and U.S. intelligence officials said.
William J. Burns, the C.I.A. managing director, told lawmakers last week that he was anticipating an "ugly adjacent few weeks."
"I think Putin is angry and frustrated right at present," Mr. Burns said. He is probable to "try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for noncombatant casualties," he added.
Indeed, fifty-fifty equally Russian federation widened its artillery, missile and bombing strikes on Sunday, Russian and Ukrainian forces were girding for what is shaping up to be a climactic battle in Kyiv.
Mr. Putin has demonstrated in past conflicts in Syria and Chechnya a willingness non simply to bomb heavily populated areas just also to utilize civilian casualties equally leverage against his enemies. Senior U.S. officials said the coming weeks could see a long, drawn-out fight with thousands of casualties on both sides, also as among the roughly 1.five million citizens remaining in the city.
Russian and Ukrainian forces are now pitted in fierce street fighting in the suburban towns around the capital. Russian forces profoundly outnumber the Ukrainian Army, simply the Ukrainians have been ambushing them with Javelin anti-tank missiles supplied by NATO and the United States.
Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told lawmakers last week there was a limit to how long Kyiv could hold on every bit Russian forces edged closer from the east, north and south, tightening the vise. "With supplies being cut off, it will become somewhat desperate in, I would say, ten days to 2 weeks," General Berrier said.
Another senior U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence assessments, said it could accept upwards to 2 weeks for Russian forces to encircle Kyiv and so at least another month to seize it. That would crave a combination of relentless bombardment and what could be weeks or months of door-to-door street fighting.
"Information technology volition come at a very high price in Russian blood," said retired Adm. James G. Stavridis, the sometime supreme allied commander for Europe. That high cost, he added, could cause Mr. Putin to destroy the city with an onslaught of missiles, artillery and bombs — "continuing a swath of war crimes dissimilar whatsoever we accept seen in the 21st century."
Abandoning Plan A, and Dividing the Nation
The Russian set on has and then far failed to achieve any of Mr. Putin'southward initial objectives. But on the battleground, he is closer to some goals than others.
Beyond Kyiv, the northern cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy remain encircled, or near and so, and go on to suffer heavy Russian shelling. Progress in the east and due south, while tiresome, has been grindingly steady. But information technology also hints what a divided Ukraine might look similar.
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Russian forces are all the same subjecting Mariupol to siege and bombardment, but are shut to securing that strategic southern port urban center and, with information technology, a state bridge from Crimea in the south to the Donbas region in the east that has been controlled past Russian-backed separatists since 2014.
And if Russia can seize Odessa, a pivotal Black Sea port city, and perchance the remaining Ukrainian coast to the southeast, it would deprive Ukraine of important access to the sea.
Senior Pentagon officials said the primal event now is maintaining extreme pressure on Russia in hopes that Mr. Putin will cut his losses and settle for the Russian-speaking south and e.
Even so the Russian attacks in western Ukraine over the by two days underscore Mr. Putin's continued determination to control the entire country, starting with Kyiv. It remains unclear how he would find the forces to occupy it, which could crave a bloody, yearslong guerrilla war.
"The well-nigh probable endgame, sadly, is a division of Ukraine," said Mr. Stavridis, pointing to the outcome of the Balkan wars in the 1990s as a model. "Putin would take the southeast of the country, and the ethnic Russians would gravitate there. The balance of the nation, overwhelmingly Ukrainian, would continue equally a sovereign state."
Worst-Case Scenario: Escalation
The fearfulness at present is that the war could expand.
The more the fighting moves west, the more than likely it is that an errant missile lands in NATO territory, or the Russians have downwardly a NATO aircraft.
Mr. Putin has used chemical weapons before against political opponents and defectors, and he might be inclined to do then again. Using battleground nuclear weapons would cross a threshold, which most American officials believe even Mr. Putin would non do unless he believed he was facing the need to withdraw his troops. Merely the possibility of a nuclear detonation has been discussed more than in the past ii weeks than in years, officials say.
And finally, at that place are cyberattacks, which have been strangely missing from the conflict and then far. They may be Mr. Putin's nigh effective way of retaliating confronting the United States for grievous harm to the Russian economy.
And then far in that location are none of the procedures in place that American and Russian pilots use over Syria, for instance, to forbid accidental conflict. And Mr. Putin has twice issued thinly veiled reminders of his nuclear capabilities, reminding the world that if the conflict does not go his way he has far larger, and far more fearsome, weapons to call into play.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/13/us/politics/russia-ukraine-us-endgame.html
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